Day by day, it’s looking more likely that Robert F. Kennedy will be the victor of the New Hampshire primary next year.
Kennedy Jr. is becoming a rather imposing figure that, for quite a while, most Democrats had refused to take seriously. This isn’t helped by the fact that he’s very unlikely to be picked as his party’s nomination, with most of it due to a slew of conspiracy the man has promoted over the years, many of which are unfounded. However, his win of the New Hampshire Primary is becoming more likely, even without a nomination from the party, as he’s become more popular as Biden’s reputation continues to falter and his push for a new primary calendar.
Now, it’s likely that a win from Kennedy Jr. won’t pose too much of a threat to President Biden, but it will be an embarrassment all the same during a period of such low approval ratings.
Many Democrats in the Granite State were enraged when Joe Biden proposed to make South Carolina the first to vote in the primary due to its diversity, putting it ahead of both New Hampshire and Iowa, who had both always gone first. This has yet to be confirmed, but many of the Democrats of New Hampshire have suggested that the state could outright defy the DNC and hold their own primary ahead of the schedule. If that sort of thing happened, it’s likely that President Biden wouldn’t participate. Ergo, it leaves an opportunity for RFK Jr. to win.
It’s not just because of Biden’s recent shenanigans, either. Kennedy Jr. has actually been pulling in some surprisingly good polling numbers as of late, to the point where a win might just be possible due to the state’s dissatisfaction with the current administration.
Now, the primary is still months away from now. Even still, RFK Jr. has already begun his campaign, one that has been relatively successful. His first cable news town hall will be this month.
Many Democratic leaders and activists had begun making the argument that Kennedy Jr. might be the alternative they need, and while a majority of Democrats will disagree, it’s still prominent enough to warrant some attention and consideration.
Kennedy Jr. does face challenges when it comes to winning over these voters, as his reputation isn’t exactly clean. He’s a known supporter of conspiracy theories, some of which have been thoroughly debunked, like the conspiracy theory that vaccines cause autism, which is extremely harmful in a post-Covid era. Democrats are fairly staunch on their beliefs and tend not to subscribe to any major conspiracies, so if Kennedy Jr. wants to keep this train rolling, he’s going to want to cut it out with the baseless conspiracies, even if he still believes in them.
Michael Strand, a Democrat and elected town councilor in Manchester New Hampshire had this to say on the subject. “The path for RFK lies not in his courting of independent conspiracy theorists, but in his clear-eyed, uncorrupted American visions for sustainable foreign and environmental policy.”
This in particular is very important, as RFK Jr. is a supporter of the Green New Deal and is an environmental lawyer. If he were to win the primary, this could very well give climate change a stronger platform than Biden ever has. With New Hampshire being such a rural and outdoor state, he’s got an advantage from the start. This would be a big contrast to Biden, who has been harshly criticized for caving into the interests of large oil corporations.
Kennedy Jr. has also been using the weight of his family name to support his campaign. His campaign statement reads as follows:
“Marking the anniversary of President John F. Kennedy’s peace speech at American University, Mr. Kennedy will announce a fundamentally new direction for American foreign policy. With his election in 2024, our country’s decades-long journey into military imperialism will be over. We will instead become again the exemplar of peace, freedom, and democracy that once inspired the world.”
In the end, RFK’s success largely hinges on the failure of one man: Joe Biden. Michael Strand had put it better than most. “Whether he has a path to nomination, or even winning New Hampshire, is yet unknown, but that will largely depend on Joe Biden. Will Biden show up for New Hampshire? Will Biden reinstate our ‘First in the Nation Primary’ status and come win renomination the right way?”
All we can do is keep an eye on this man as he continues his campaign, but for now, we wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up winning over a large sum of Biden’s lost voter base.